# User Guide¶

## Presenting main functionality¶

Example created by Wilson Rocha Lacerda Junior

Here we import the NARMAX model, the metric for model evaluation and the methods to generate sample data for tests. Also, we import pandas for specific usage.

```
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from sysidentpy.polynomial_basis import PolynomialNarmax
from sysidentpy.metrics import root_relative_squared_error
from sysidentpy.utils.generate_data import get_miso_data, get_siso_data
```

## Generating 1 input 1 output sample data¶

The data is generated by simulating the following model:

\(y_k = 0.2y_{k-1} + 0.1y_{k-1}x_{k-1} + 0.9x_{k-1} + e_{k}\)

If `colored_noise`

is set to True:

\(e_{k} = 0.8\nu_{k-1} + \nu_{k}\)

where \(x\) is a uniformly distributed random variable and \(\nu\) is a gaussian distributed variable with \(\mu=0\) and \(\sigma=0.1\)

In the next example we will generate a data with 1000 samples with white noise and selecting 90% of the data to train the model.

```
x_train, x_valid, y_train, y_valid = get_siso_data(n=1000,
colored_noise=False,
sigma=0.001,
train_percentage=90)
```

To obtain a NARMAX model we have to choose some values, e.g, the nonlinearity degree (`non_degree`

), the maximum lag for the inputs and output (`xlag`

and `ylag`

).

In addition, you can select the information criteria to be used with the Error Reduction Ratio to select the model order and the method to estimate the model paramaters:

Information Criteria: aic, bic, lilc, fpe

Parameter Estimation: least_squares, total_least_squares, recursive_least_squares, least_mean_squres and many other (see the docs)

The `n_terms`

values is optional. It refer to the number of terms to
inclued in the final model. You can set this value based on the
information criteria (see below) or based on priori information about
the model struture. The default value is `n_terms=None`

, so the
algorithm will choose the minimum value reached by the information
criteria.

To use information criteria you have to set `order_selection=True`

. You
can also select `n_info_values`

(default = 15).

```
model = PolynomialNarmax(non_degree=2,
order_selection=True,
n_info_values=10,
extended_least_squares=False,
ylag=2, xlag=2,
info_criteria='aic',
estimator='least_squares',
)
```

The `fit`

method executes the Error Reduction Ratio algorithm using Househoulder reflection to select the model structure.

```
model.fit(x_train, y_train)
```

```
<sysidentpy.polynomial_basis.narmax.PolynomialNarmax at 0x7f332d0cc490>
```

The `predict`

method is use to generate the predictions. For now we only support `free run simulation`

(also known as `infinity steps ahead`

). Soon we will let the user define a `one-step ahead`

or `k-step ahead`

prediction.

**Note:** **Free run simulation** means that the `y`

values used for predictions are the ones predicted in previous iterations. In **one-step ahead** simulation, otherwise, the `y`

values used are the observed values of the system. In **k-steps ahead**, the `y`

values are the predicted values but at each *k* iterations the oberved values are used.

```
yhat = model.predict(x_valid, y_valid)
```

In this example we use the `root_relative_squared_error`

metric because it is often used in System Idenfication. More metrics and information about it can be found on documentation.

```
rrse = root_relative_squared_error(y_valid, yhat)
print(rrse)
```

```
0.0018758031321337446
```

`model_object.results`

return the selected model regressors, the estimated parameters and the ERR values. As shown below, the algorithm detect the exact model that was used for simulate the data.

```
results = pd.DataFrame(model.results(err_precision=8,
dtype='dec'),
columns=['Regressors', 'Parameters', 'ERR'])
print(results)
```

```
Regressors Parameters ERR
0 u1(k-2) 0.9001 0.95750813
1 y(k-1) 0.2000 0.03916822
2 u1(k-1)y(k-1) 0.1003 0.00332022
```

In addition, you can access the `residuals`

and `plot_result`

methods to take a look at the prediction and two residual analysis. The `extras`

and `lam`

values below contain another residues analysis so you can plot it mannualy. This method will be improved soon.

```
ee, ex, extras, lam = model.residuals(x_valid, y_valid, yhat)
model.plot_result(y_valid, yhat, ee, ex)
```

In the example above we let the number of terms to compose the final model to be defined as the minimum value of the information criteria. Once you ran the algorithm and choose the best number of parameters, you can turn `order_selection`

to `False`

and set the `n_terms`

value (3 in this example). Here we have a small dataset, but in bigger data this can be critical because running information criteria algorithm is more computational expensive. Since we already know the best number of regressor, we set `n_terms`

and we get the same result.

However, this is not only critical because computational eficiency. In many situation, the minimum value of the information criteria can lead to overfiting. In some cases, the diference between choosing a model with 30 regressors or 10 is minimal, so you can take the model with 10 terms without loosing accuracy.

In the following we use `info_values`

to plot the information criteria values. As you can see, the minimum value relies where \(xaxis = 5\)

```
xaxis = np.arange(1, model.n_info_values + 1)
plt.plot(xaxis, model.info_values)
plt.xlabel('n_terms')
plt.ylabel('Information Criteria')
```

```
Text(0, 0.5, 'Information Criteria')
```

## Important Note:¶

Here we are creating random samples with white noise and letting the algorithm choose the number of terms based on the minimum value of information criteria. This is not the best approach in System Identification, but serves as a simple example. The information criteria must be used as an **auxiliary tool** to select `n_terms`

. Plot the information values to help you on that!

If you run the example above several times you might find some cases where the algorithm choose only the first two regressors, or four (depending on the information criteria method selected). This is because the minimum value of information criteria depends on residual variance (affected by noise) and have some limitations in nonlinear scenarios. However, if you check the ERR values (robust to noise) you will see that the ERR is ordering the regressors in the correct way!

We have some examples on `information_criteria`

notebook!

The `n_info_values`

limits the number of regressors to apply the information criteria. We choose \(n_y = n_x = \ell = 2\), so the candidate regressor is a list of 15 regressors. We can set `n_info_values = 15`

and see the information values for all regressors. This option can save some amount of computational resources when dealing with multiples inputs and large datasets.

```
model = PolynomialNarmax(non_degree=2,
order_selection=True,
n_info_values=15,
extended_least_squares=False,
ylag=2, xlag=2,
info_criteria='aic',
estimator='least_squares',
)
model.fit(x_train, y_train)
xaxis = np.arange(1, model.n_info_values + 1)
plt.plot(xaxis, model.info_values)
plt.xlabel('n_terms')
plt.ylabel('Information Criteria')
```

```
Text(0, 0.5, 'Information Criteria')
```

Now running without executing information criteria methods (setting the `n_terms`

) because we already know the optimal number of regressors

```
model = PolynomialNarmax(non_degree=2,
# order_selection=True,
n_terms = 3,
# n_info_values=15,
extended_least_squares=False,
ylag=2, xlag=2,
info_criteria='aic',
estimator='least_squares',
)
model.fit(x_train, y_train)
yhat = model.predict(x_valid, y_valid)
rrse = root_relative_squared_error(y_valid, yhat)
print('rrse: ', rrse)
results = pd.DataFrame(model.results(err_precision=8,
dtype='dec'),
columns=['Regressors', 'Parameters', 'ERR'])
print('\n', results)
```

```
rrse: 0.0018758031321337446
Regressors Parameters ERR
0 u1(k-2) 0.9001 0.95750813
1 y(k-1) 0.2000 0.03916822
2 u1(k-1)y(k-1) 0.1003 0.00332022
```

You can acess some extra information like the list of all candidate regressors

```
# for now the list is returned as a codification. Here, $0$ is the constant term, $[1001]=y{k-1}, [100n]=y_{k-n}, [200n] = x1_{k-n}, [300n]=x2_{k-n}$ and so on
model.regressor_code # list of all possible regressors given non_degree, n_y and n_x values
```

```
array([[ 0, 0],
[1001, 0],
[1002, 0],
[2001, 0],
[2002, 0],
[1001, 1001],
[1002, 1001],
[2001, 1001],
[2002, 1001],
[1002, 1002],
[2001, 1002],
[2002, 1002],
[2001, 2001],
[2002, 2001],
[2002, 2002]])
```

```
print(model.err, '\n\n') # err values for the selected terms
print(model.theta) # estimated parameters for the final model structure
```

```
[0.95750813 0.03916822 0.00332022 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. ]
[[0.90008672]
[0.19998879]
[0.10026928]]
```